More to Lore; Cryptocurrency Momentum (Market Notes, 890 pages)
On the previous rendition of market notes, we expounded on cryptocurrency momentum:
Here, we make some additional notes, particularly on empirical evidence for or against dual momentum and decay.
There is a rather important statement to make - I have removed the previous post on dual momentum - in part because I suspect some of the hypothesis I asserted are false in light of a more complete study.
I guess I don’t particularly mind if people realize changes in my beliefs/mistakes I have made, but my concern is that there will be readers who read that post in isolation and then draw false conclusions. To be safe, I took it down - anyhow, I hope you find the modifications meaningful!
Also for transparency, since I have modified my beliefs in relation to something I wrote publicly, I thought I should make these modifications equally public, so that you may make your own judgments - attached is page 879-883 - the part where I correct some observations:
preview:
and here the full market notes for paid readers: